The Licking County Market After Intel's 2031 Reset: Reading Past the County Median

The headline number for Licking County looks soft. The submarket numbers do not. That gap is the whole story for anyone buying or selling here through the back half of 2026.

In February 2025, Intel delayed Ohio One's opening into 2031, roughly five years past the original chip-making target. The county-wide data that has drifted downward since then is being read, incorrectly, as evidence that the Central Ohio story has cooled. What the data actually shows is a bifurcation: speculative land positions taken between 2022 and 2024 are stranded on a long clock, while finished-home submarkets tied to New Albany commuting have kept appreciating on fundamentals that were never really about the fabs.

The friction that catches people mid-transaction

Before the interpretation, the practical piece. If you are transacting in Licking County right now, three things are showing up at the closing table that were not showing up a year ago.

1. Longer marketing timelines on non-Johnstown inventory. In December 2025, Licking County home prices were down 2.4% year over year at a median of $319,000, and homes were selling after 64 days on the market compared with 48 days the year before. By July 19, 2026, Vision Realty's county snapshot showed 1,996 active listings, an average of 71 days on market, and a median list price of $359,222. Days on market has grown faster than price has moved.
2. Land contracts pricing in the delay. Pre-delay, agricultural land around New Albany and Johnstown saw values increase 10 to 15 times almost overnight, with acreage that previously traded at $5,000 to $10,000 an acre becoming hot inventory for developers and investors. Those positions now carry a five-plus year hold before end-use demand arrives. Buyers of raw or partially entitled land are re-underwriting with that clock in mind.
3. Investor solicitation pressure that has not stopped. Owner-occupants near the Ohio One perimeter continue to field unsolicited offers. In Johnstown, residents were reporting being inundated with investors trying to buy their homes, with one owner receiving two investor voicemails in a single week as early as the announcement period. That posture has not fully reset, even with the timeline pushed.

The thesis: read the submarket, not the county

The county median is a blended average of a large rural footprint, a mid-size legacy city in Newark, a luxury pocket in Alexandria, and a Columbus-adjacent growth corridor. Blending those into one number is what makes the current data misleading.

Zillow's Home Value Index puts the average Johnstown home value at $400,364, up 5.9% over the past year. That is Johnstown outpacing Ohio's statewide median of roughly $275,000, which is running 3% to 5.4% above last year in mid-2026. Meanwhile, the same county that contains Johnstown printed a negative year-over-year median in December. Both facts are true. They describe different buyers.

Where the money actually goes across the county

The spread between Licking submarkets is now wide enough to change what a given budget buys. Alexandria is the priciest city with a median listing home price of $829,900, and Newark is the most affordable with average house prices of around $264,900. Between those poles:

• Johnstown is the submarket where the Intel narrative and the fundamentals still overlap. Buyers describe it as offering convenient access to New Albany, Intel's expanding technology corridor, Newark, Sunbury, and much of northeast Columbus, providing a balance between small-town living and access to major employment centers. Value here is being paid for commute geometry, not fab-opening timing.
• Pataskala is Columbus-adjacent enough to be priced against Franklin County commuters more than Intel labor. Vision Realty's active inventory shows five-bed new-construction inventory in the low $430,000s alongside sub-$200,000 legacy stock in Newark, a reminder that the county contains two separate price universes.
• Newark is where the softening county median mostly lives. It is also where the largest share of active supply sits, with Newark containing 1,050 homes for sale, the highest number of listed properties in a single city within the county. Longer marketing timelines here are pulling the county-wide DOM number up.
• Alexandria and the western estate pockets are their own comparables universe. Buyers at that end are shopping architecture and acreage, not proximity to Ohio One.

What the 2031 timeline actually changes

The important shift is not that Intel is delayed. It is that the delay is now long enough to matter for financing math, land carry, and seller pricing strategy.

Intel is planning to invest more than $28 billion in two leading-edge chip factories on a site spanning nearly 1,000 acres in New Albany, Licking County, and the state's supplier footprint has grown to more than 350 current Ohio suppliers across 47 Ohio counties, with top suppliers including Bechtel Construction, Gilbane Building Company, and Linde. Construction spend and supplier hiring are real and ongoing, which is why Johnstown's owner-occupant demand has not collapsed. What has collapsed is the 2025 chip-making timeline that anchored a lot of speculative pricing.

Recent Intel commentary is worth reading carefully. CEO Lip-Bu Tan said the company ended 2025 with demand for chip manufacturing outpacing supply, and CFO David Zinsner indicated revenue would have been higher if the company could produce more semiconductor chips. That is the setup that could pull the Ohio One timeline forward again, or at least stabilize it. Tan said he believes customers will begin to make firm agreements for 14A in the second half of 2026 or first half of 2027. A firm 14A customer announcement is the next event that would move Licking County pricing meaningfully.

For sellers: pricing against a two-market county

If you own in Johnstown, Pataskala, or the New Albany-adjacent corridor, current comparables support pricing to the fundamental, not the headline. Marketing timelines are still tolerable and buyers are underwriting to commute, schools, and new construction inventory.

If you own in Newark or the softer inland pockets, the December 2025 dataset is the honest starting point. Pricing to the 2022 or 2023 peak invites the 64-to-71 day marketing window to stretch further. Preparation, staging, and photography matter more when your submarket median is drifting sideways.

For buyers: what the delay bought you

The delay bought patience without buying real discounts in the submarkets you probably want. For many buyers, waiting may not create significant savings, and although mortgage rates fluctuate, home values in desirable Central Ohio communities have continued demonstrating long-term strength. The negotiation leverage is real on aged listings and in Newark. It is thinner in Johnstown, where the ZHVI keeps climbing.

Infrastructure spend is the second thing the delay did not pause. Around the Ohio One site, the Fancher Road and County Line Road roundabout is estimated for completion in 2026 with $4 million in funding, and the SR 161 noise wall between I-270 and US 62 is estimated for completion in 2026 with $8 million in funding. Road capacity is being built now for population that has not yet arrived. That asymmetry is a real advantage for buyers closing in the next twelve months.

FAQ

Does the 2031 timeline mean Intel's Licking County commitment has weakened? No. Intel said it received $123 million for Ohio in federal grants in 2025, and Intel Ohio Vice President Jim Evers reported over five million labor hours invested in construction, with basements complete and the team shifting focus to constructing the main floors. The project is progressing on a longer runway.

Is Johnstown still worth the premium if the fabs open in 2031, not 2025? The Johnstown premium was never really priced to a 2025 opening. It reflects proximity to New Albany employers already on the ground, new construction inventory, and school-district demand. The ZHVI's 5.9% year-over-year print in a delay year is the answer.

Where is the softest negotiating leverage in the county right now? Aged Newark listings and any inland acreage that traded near peak land pricing. Those are the sellers whose carrying costs have compounded the most since February 2025.

If you own land or a home in Licking County and want a pricing read that separates the headline from your specific submarket, Brandon Emmanuel works this market with the kind of preparation and strategy nonstandard inventory requires. Let's Connect.